Hoffenheim
Holstein Kiel
The model leans Hoffenheim at 68%. Expected goals: Hoffenheim 2.86, Holstein Kiel 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 56%. Hoffenheim won 3 of their last 5; Holstein Kiel won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hoffenheim | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.83 | – | – | – |
| 2Holstein Kiel | 8% | 12.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hoffenheim. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.86 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.7%
- 3–09.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.8%
- 4–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hoffenheim −2| Hoffenheim line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| -1 | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.