Udinese
Como
The model leans Como at 50%. Expected goals: Udinese 0.90, Como 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. Udinese won 4 of their last 6; Como won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Udinese | 21% | 4.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Como | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Como. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.6%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–08.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Como −0.5| Udinese line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.