Arsenal
Como
The model leans Arsenal at 54%. Expected goals: Arsenal 1.70, Como 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. Arsenal won 2 of their last 5; Como won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Como | 13% | 7.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arsenal. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.70 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.3%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arsenal −1| Arsenal line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.