Arsenal
Real Betis
The model leans Arsenal at 64%. Expected goals: Arsenal 2.23, Real Betis 0.61. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Arsenal won 2 of their last 5; Real Betis won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | 74% | 1.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Betis | 8% | 12.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arsenal. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.23 – 0.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.5%
- 1–013.0%
- 3–010.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arsenal −1.5| Arsenal line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.