Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Recreativo Huelva
0–1
Won
Real Betis
The model leans Real Betis at 40%. Expected goals: Recreativo Huelva 0.83, Real Betis 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match24
33
43
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Recreativo Huelva | 24% | 4.15 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Betis | 43% | 2.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Betis. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.8%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Betis −0.5| Recreativo Huelva line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 30% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.