Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Granada
1–0
Lost
Real Betis
The model leans Real Betis at 50%. Expected goals: Granada 0.98, Real Betis 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match20
26
55
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Granada | 20% | 5.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Betis | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Betis. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 1.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.3%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.4%
- 1–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Betis −0.5| Granada line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.