Napoli
Como
The model leans Como at 39%. Expected goals: Napoli 1.09, Como 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Napoli won 3 of their last 4; Como won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Napoli | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Como | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Como. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Napoli 0| Napoli line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.