Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Napoli
2–0
Won
Carrarese
The model leans Napoli at 69%. Expected goals: Napoli 2.53, Carrarese 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match80
15
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Napoli | 80% | 1.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Carrarese | 5% | 19.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Napoli. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.53 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.9%
- 3–012.6%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 4–08.0%
- 3–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Napoli −2| Napoli line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.