Genoa
Napoli
The model leans Napoli at 41%. Expected goals: Genoa 1.02, Napoli 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Genoa won 1 of their last 4; Napoli won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Genoa | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Napoli | 44% | 2.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Napoli. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–28.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Napoli −0.5| Genoa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 17% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 24% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.