Predictions · Coppa Italia · outside model coverage
Udinese
1–0
Won
Padova
The model leans Udinese at 63%. Expected goals: Udinese 2.04, Padova 0.53. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 63%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match72
20
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Udinese | 72% | 1.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Padova | 8% | 13.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Udinese. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.04 – 0.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 2–015.9%
- 1–015.6%
- 3–010.8%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–18.3%
- 0–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Udinese −1.5| Udinese line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 18% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 7% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.