Predictions · Serie B · outside model coverage
Pisa
0–1
Lost
Padova
The model leans Pisa at 37%. Expected goals: Pisa 1.08, Padova 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match38
34
28
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pisa | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Padova | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pisa. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.1%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pisa 0| Pisa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.