St. Pauli
Greuther Fürth
The model leans St. Pauli at 47%. Expected goals: St. Pauli 1.59, Greuther Fürth 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%. St. Pauli won 0 of their last 6; Greuther Fürth won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Pauli | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Greuther Fürth | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Pauli. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.5%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 44% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Pauli −0.5| St. Pauli line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.