Bayer Leverkusen
Sevilla
The model leans Bayer Leverkusen at 54%. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.04, Sevilla 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%. Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 6; Sevilla won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayer Leverkusen | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Sevilla | 16% | 6.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.04 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–07.2%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayer Leverkusen −1| Bayer Leverkusen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.