Predictions · Belgian Pro League · outside model coverage

Zulte Waregem

40
Lost

SK Beveren

The model leans SK Beveren at 45%. Expected goals: Zulte Waregem 1.11, SK Beveren 1.63. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Zulte Waregem won 3 of their last 6; SK Beveren won 1 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Zulte Waregem25%4.04
XDraw27%3.71
2SK Beveren48%2.07

Pick: SK Beveren. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.11 – 1.63
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.530%70%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.7%
  • 0110.5%
  • 129.5%
  • 028.6%
  • 107.1%
  • 216.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: SK Beveren −0.5
Zulte Waregem lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%16%74%
-0.526%74%
026%25%50%
+0.550%50%
+150%23%26%
+1.574%26%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.