Zulte Waregem
AZ Alkmaar
The model leans AZ Alkmaar at 46%. Expected goals: Zulte Waregem 1.32, AZ Alkmaar 1.85. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Zulte Waregem won 3 of their last 6; AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zulte Waregem | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| 2AZ Alkmaar | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AZ Alkmaar −0.5| Zulte Waregem line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.