AZ Alkmaar
Go Ahead Eagles
The model leans AZ Alkmaar at 51%. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.12, Go Ahead Eagles 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%. AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6; Go Ahead Eagles won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AZ Alkmaar | 58% | 1.72 | 1.33 | 72% | −13 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.46 | 5.50 | 17% | +5 |
| 2Go Ahead Eagles | 20% | 5.11 | 8.50 | 11% | +8 |
Pick: AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.12 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–16.9%
- 3–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AZ Alkmaar −1| AZ Alkmaar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.