Feyenoord
Go Ahead Eagles
The model leans Feyenoord at 52%. Expected goals: Feyenoord 2.16, Go Ahead Eagles 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%. Feyenoord won 4 of their last 6; Go Ahead Eagles won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Feyenoord | 59% | 1.70 | 1.33 | 71% | −12 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.53 | 5.50 | 17% | +5 |
| 2Go Ahead Eagles | 19% | 5.21 | 8.00 | 12% | +7 |
Pick: Feyenoord. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.16 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–17.0%
- 3–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Feyenoord −1| Feyenoord line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.