Feyenoord
ADO Den Haag
The model leans Feyenoord at 50%. Expected goals: Feyenoord 2.05, ADO Den Haag 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. Feyenoord won 4 of their last 6; ADO Den Haag won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Feyenoord | 52% | 1.92 | 1.18 | 80% | −28 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.31 | 7.00 | 14% | +10 |
| 2ADO Den Haag | 25% | 4.06 | 15.00 | 6% | +18 |
Pick: Feyenoord. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.05 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Feyenoord −0.5| Feyenoord line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 22% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.