Lommel
ADO Den Haag
The model leans ADO Den Haag at 44%. Expected goals: Lommel 1.54, ADO Den Haag 2.01. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. Lommel won 2 of their last 5; ADO Den Haag won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lommel | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.29 | – | – | – |
| 2ADO Den Haag | 48% | 2.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: ADO Den Haag. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 2.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–36.0%
- 0–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ADO Den Haag −0.5| Lommel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 16% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 22% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.