ADO Den Haag
Asteras Tripolis
The model leans ADO Den Haag at 55%. Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.96, Asteras Tripolis 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. ADO Den Haag won 1 of their last 5; Asteras Tripolis won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ADO Den Haag | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Asteras Tripolis | 14% | 7.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: ADO Den Haag. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.96 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.3%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.8%
- 3–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ADO Den Haag −1| ADO Den Haag line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.