ADO Den Haag
FC Groningen
The model leans ADO Den Haag at 45%. Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.71, FC Groningen 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. ADO Den Haag won 1 of their last 5; FC Groningen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ADO Den Haag | 48% | 2.09 | 2.60 | 37% | +11 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | 3.70 | 26% | 0 |
| 2FC Groningen | 26% | 3.84 | 2.50 | 38% | −12 |
Pick: ADO Den Haag. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.8%
- 0–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ADO Den Haag −0.5| ADO Den Haag line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.