PSV Eindhoven
FC Groningen
The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 64%. Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.94, FC Groningen 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 65%. PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6; FC Groningen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | 73% | 1.36 | 1.30 | 72% | +1 |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.46 | 5.50 | 17% | −2 |
| 2FC Groningen | 11% | 8.93 | 9.00 | 11% | +1 |
Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.94 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–07.2%
- 4–16.0%
- 1–15.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 67% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −1.5| PSV Eindhoven line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 14% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.