FC Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 50%. Expected goals: FC Utrecht 1.51, PSV Eindhoven 2.15. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. FC Utrecht won 0 of their last 5; PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Utrecht | 26% | 3.81 | 5.25 | 18% | +8 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.46 | 5.00 | 19% | +4 |
| 2PSV Eindhoven | 51% | 1.95 | 1.50 | 63% | −12 |
Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 2.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.0%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.3%
- 0–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −0.5| FC Utrecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 15% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 21% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.