Go Ahead Eagles
ADO Den Haag
The model leans ADO Den Haag at 35%. Expected goals: Go Ahead Eagles 1.52, ADO Den Haag 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Go Ahead Eagles won 3 of their last 5; ADO Den Haag won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Go Ahead Eagles | 37% | 2.72 | 1.70 | 56% | −19 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | 4.00 | 24% | +3 |
| 2ADO Den Haag | 37% | 2.71 | 4.75 | 20% | +17 |
Pick: ADO Den Haag. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.52 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Go Ahead Eagles 0| Go Ahead Eagles line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.