Luton Town
Go Ahead Eagles
The model leans Luton Town at 43%. Expected goals: Luton Town 1.69, Go Ahead Eagles 1.24. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Luton Town won 3 of their last 6; Go Ahead Eagles won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luton Town | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Go Ahead Eagles | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Luton Town. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 1.24| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.9%
- 0–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Luton Town −0.5| Luton Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.