Gillingham
Luton Town
The model leans Luton Town at 54%. Expected goals: Gillingham 0.98, Luton Town 2.06. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. Gillingham won 1 of their last 6; Luton Town won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gillingham | 16% | 6.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Luton Town | 61% | 1.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Luton Town. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 2.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–37.0%
- 1–36.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Luton Town −1| Gillingham line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 11% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.