Chesterfield
Gillingham
The model leans Chesterfield at 54%. Expected goals: Chesterfield 2.02, Gillingham 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. Chesterfield won 1 of their last 5; Gillingham won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chesterfield | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Gillingham | 15% | 6.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chesterfield. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.02 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–07.3%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chesterfield −1| Chesterfield line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.