Chesterfield
Fleetwood Town
The model leans Chesterfield at 44%. Expected goals: Chesterfield 1.50, Fleetwood Town 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Chesterfield won 1 of their last 5; Fleetwood Town won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chesterfield | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Fleetwood Town | 24% | 4.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chesterfield. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–08.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chesterfield −0.5| Chesterfield line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 24% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.