Rotherham United
Chesterfield
The model leans Chesterfield at 39%. Expected goals: Rotherham United 1.06, Chesterfield 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Rotherham United won 1 of their last 6; Chesterfield won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rotherham United | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Chesterfield | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chesterfield. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chesterfield −0.5| Rotherham United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.