Predictions · EFL Cup · outside model coverage

Rotherham United

14
Won

West Bromwich Albion

The model leans West Bromwich Albion at 37%. Expected goals: Rotherham United 0.96, West Bromwich Albion 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Rotherham United won 1 of their last 6; West Bromwich Albion won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Rotherham United29%3.47
XDraw32%3.11
2West Bromwich Albion39%2.56

Pick: West Bromwich Albion. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.96 – 1.16
LineOverUnder
1.563%37%
2.536%64%
3.517%83%
Both teams to scoreYes43%No57%

Most likely scores

  • 0113.9%
  • 1113.4%
  • 0011.9%
  • 1011.5%
  • 028.1%
  • 127.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Rotherham United 0
Rotherham United lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.511%89%
-111%19%70%
-0.530%70%
030%30%40%
+0.560%40%
+160%23%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.