Gillingham
Walsall
The model leans Walsall at 38%. Expected goals: Gillingham 1.24, Walsall 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Gillingham won 1 of their last 6; Walsall won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gillingham | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Walsall | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Walsall. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 14% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gillingham 0| Gillingham line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 26% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.