Predictions · EFL Cup · outside model coverage

Walsall

00
Lost

Leyton Orient

The model leans Walsall at 37%. Expected goals: Walsall 1.34, Leyton Orient 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Walsall won 3 of their last 6; Leyton Orient won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Walsall39%2.55
XDraw29%3.41
2Leyton Orient31%3.19

Pick: Walsall. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.17
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.546%54%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.7%
  • 1010.8%
  • 019.5%
  • 218.5%
  • 008.1%
  • 127.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Walsall 0
Walsall lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.519%81%
-119%22%59%
-0.541%59%
041%27%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%19%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.