Leyton Orient
Sheffield Wednesday
The model leans Leyton Orient at 53%. Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.66, Sheffield Wednesday 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. Leyton Orient won 2 of their last 6; Sheffield Wednesday won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leyton Orient | 61% | 1.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Sheffield Wednesday | 13% | 7.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: Leyton Orient. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.66 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.6%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leyton Orient −1| Leyton Orient line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.