Sheffield Wednesday
Wolverhampton Wanderers
The model leans Wolverhampton Wanderers at 60%. Expected goals: Sheffield Wednesday 0.54, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 64%. Sheffield Wednesday won 4 of their last 6; Wolverhampton Wanderers won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sheffield Wednesday | 10% | 10.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Wolverhampton Wanderers. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.54 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.5%
- 0–215.6%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–39.2%
- 1–28.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wolverhampton Wanderers −1| Sheffield Wednesday line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 8% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 22% | 68% |
| +0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| +1 | 32% | 27% | 40% |
| +1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.