Predictions · EFL Cup · outside model coverage

Wolverhampton Wanderers

30
Won

Port Vale

The model leans Wolverhampton Wanderers at 53%. Expected goals: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.53, Port Vale 0.57. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. Wolverhampton Wanderers won 5 of their last 6; Port Vale won 0 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Wolverhampton Wanderers60%1.67
XDraw28%3.63
2Port Vale13%7.96

Pick: Wolverhampton Wanderers. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.53 – 0.57
LineOverUnder
1.562%38%
2.535%65%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes34%No66%

Most likely scores

  • 1018.7%
  • 2014.4%
  • 0012.2%
  • 1110.7%
  • 218.2%
  • 307.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Wolverhampton Wanderers −1
Wolverhampton Wanderers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%28%39%
-0.561%39%
061%25%14%
+0.586%14%
+186%10%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.