Oldham Athletic
Port Vale
The model leans Oldham Athletic at 50%. Expected goals: Oldham Athletic 1.28, Port Vale 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 64%. Oldham Athletic won 2 of their last 5; Port Vale won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oldham Athletic | 51% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Port Vale | 18% | 5.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Oldham Athletic. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.6%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Oldham Athletic −0.5| Oldham Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 27% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 14% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.