Port Vale
Tranmere Rovers
The model leans Port Vale at 46%. Expected goals: Port Vale 1.34, Tranmere Rovers 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%. Port Vale won 0 of their last 5; Tranmere Rovers won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Port Vale | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| 2Tranmere Rovers | 21% | 4.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Port Vale. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Port Vale −0.5| Port Vale line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.