Swindon Town
Port Vale
The model leans Swindon Town at 50%. Expected goals: Swindon Town 1.39, Port Vale 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. Swindon Town won 2 of their last 6; Port Vale won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Swindon Town | 50% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Port Vale | 20% | 4.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Swindon Town. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Swindon Town −0.5| Swindon Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.