Colchester United
Oldham Athletic
The model leans Colchester United at 31%. Expected goals: Colchester United 1.08, Oldham Athletic 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 57%. Colchester United won 2 of their last 6; Oldham Athletic won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Colchester United | 36% | 2.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Oldham Athletic | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Colchester United. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.7%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Colchester United 0| Colchester United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 30% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.