Colchester United
Rochdale
The model leans Rochdale at 40%. Expected goals: Colchester United 0.97, Rochdale 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Colchester United won 2 of their last 6; Rochdale won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Colchester United | 26% | 3.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Rochdale | 43% | 2.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rochdale. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–28.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rochdale −0.5| Colchester United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 24% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.