Newport County
Rochdale
The model leans Rochdale at 57%. Expected goals: Newport County 0.79, Rochdale 2.02. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Newport County won 1 of their last 6; Rochdale won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newport County | 13% | 7.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.52 | – | – | – |
| 2Rochdale | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rochdale. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 2.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.3%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–38.3%
- 1–36.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rochdale −1| Newport County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 10% | 86% |
| -0.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| 0 | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| +0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| +1 | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| +1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.