Salford City
Newport County
The model leans Salford City at 53%. Expected goals: Salford City 1.77, Newport County 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Salford City won 2 of their last 6; Newport County won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Salford City | 60% | 1.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Newport County | 15% | 6.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Salford City. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.9%
- 3–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Salford City −1| Salford City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.