Shrewsbury Town
Salford City
The model leans Salford City at 43%. Expected goals: Shrewsbury Town 0.89, Salford City 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 55%. Shrewsbury Town won 1 of their last 6; Salford City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shrewsbury Town | 23% | 4.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Salford City | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Salford City. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.7%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Salford City −0.5| Shrewsbury Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 25% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.