Salford City
Shrewsbury Town
The model leans Salford City at 51%. Expected goals: Salford City 1.64, Shrewsbury Town 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%. Salford City won 2 of their last 6; Shrewsbury Town won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Salford City | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Shrewsbury Town | 15% | 6.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Salford City. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.4%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Salford City −1| Salford City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 24% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.