Shrewsbury Town
Barnet
The model leans Barnet at 50%. Expected goals: Shrewsbury Town 0.98, Barnet 1.63. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Shrewsbury Town won 1 of their last 6; Barnet won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shrewsbury Town | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Barnet | 51% | 1.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barnet. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 1.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.4%
- 1–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barnet −0.5| Shrewsbury Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 25% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 24% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.