Predictions · EFL Cup · outside model coverage

Cambridge United

21
Won

Barnet

The model leans Cambridge United at 50%. Expected goals: Cambridge United 1.48, Barnet 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%. Cambridge United won 3 of their last 6; Barnet won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Cambridge United53%1.89
XDraw29%3.47
2Barnet18%5.51

Pick: Cambridge United. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.48 – 0.76
LineOverUnder
1.566%34%
2.539%61%
3.519%81%
Both teams to scoreYes41%No59%

Most likely scores

  • 1015.7%
  • 1112.0%
  • 2011.6%
  • 0010.6%
  • 218.9%
  • 018.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Cambridge United −0.5
Cambridge United lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.528%72%
-128%26%46%
-0.554%46%
054%26%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%14%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.