West Ham United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
The model leans West Ham United at 51%. Expected goals: West Ham United 1.78, Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. West Ham United won 3 of their last 6; Wolverhampton Wanderers won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | 56% | 1.78 | 2.15 | 44% | +12 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.95 | 3.60 | 26% | −1 |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19% | 5.39 | 3.10 | 30% | −12 |
Pick: West Ham United. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.7%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.6%
- 3–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: West Ham United −1| West Ham United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 25% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.