Burnley
West Ham United
The model leans West Ham United at 40%. Expected goals: Burnley 1.32, West Ham United 1.62. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Burnley won 0 of their last 6; West Ham United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burnley | 30% | 3.32 | 2.85 | 33% | −2 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | 3.50 | 26% | 0 |
| 2West Ham United | 43% | 2.31 | 2.25 | 41% | +2 |
Pick: West Ham United. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.0%
- 0–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: West Ham United −0.5| Burnley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 18% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 24% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 22% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.