Burnley
Notts County
The model leans Burnley at 50%. Expected goals: Burnley 1.87, Notts County 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. Burnley won 0 of their last 6; Notts County won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burnley | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Notts County | 20% | 4.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Burnley. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.87 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–16.2%
- 3–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Burnley −1| Burnley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.