Notts County
Nottingham Forest
The model leans Nottingham Forest at 54%. Expected goals: Notts County 0.83, Nottingham Forest 1.93. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Notts County won 1 of their last 6; Nottingham Forest won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Notts County | 14% | 6.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Nottingham Forest | 62% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nottingham Forest. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.3%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.6%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nottingham Forest −1| Notts County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 11% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 21% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.